Opinion: Now's The Time To Watch MLS

By: Anthony Tazbaz

Image Credit: Jose M

To all viewers, now would be a really good time to tune into MLS, whether you buy the full AppleTV+ subscription, or catch a game here and there when they offer it on the platform for free, or even on TSN or RDS in Canada.

With most MLS clubs having played 3/4 of their matches in the 2023 regular season, the race to the MLS Cup playoffs is heating up. The top nine clubs from each conference qualify for the playoffs, with 8th place club hosting the 9th place club in a wildcard match, before playing against the top club of the conference in a best-of-three matchup, with the six other clubs from each conference also competing in the best-of-three format.

A Deeper Look

As it stands in the MLS table, FC Cincinnati seems destined to claim both the top spot in the Eastern Conference and the Supporters' Shield, the trophy awarded to the best club in the regular season. The club would play the winners of what would be a DC United-CF Montréal matchup in the first-round wildcard, should the playoffs start today.

With a nine-point lead above 2nd place New England Revolution and a 12-1-1 home record, the Ohio club should comfortably win the Supporters Shield and have significant advantage playing almost every match in their fortress, known as TQL stadium.

However, the club's lack of collective experience in the MLS Cup Playoffs will be measured against Eastern Conference rivals New England - who are undefeated at home (10-0-4) - MLS Cup finalists Philadelphia Union, Leagues Cup finalists Nashville SC, and last year's US Open Cup winners Orlando City SC.

While neither of these clubs boast known European talent, which in my opinion is indicative of how far the MLS has grown since the influx of older European talent, the likes of Luciano Acosta, USMNT forward Brandon Vasquez, 2022 MVP Hani Mukhtar, 2022 MVP candidate Daniel Gazdag, Carles Gil, Facundo Torres, and many more provide enough value and entertainment for the average viewer.

As for the 5th-7th placed clubs, there is only a five-point difference, with 4th place Philadelphia ahead by one point. Orlando and New England are ahead of Philadelphia, with a one-point difference between each other.

In the West, expansion club St. Louis City continues to dominate, with a six-point lead over the Seattle Sounders. Despite being 2nd in the conference, Seattle still needs to fight just to qualify for the Eastern Conference quarterfinals (second round), having only a four-point lead ahead of 8th place, San Jose Earthquakes.

Ultimately, every playoff position, with the exception of first in the East, is realistically up for grabs. Now let's look at the wildcard positions (8th & 9th place).

A Fight to the Postseason

As previously mentioned, Canadian club CF Montréal (35 pts, 27 matches) will be one to watch North of the border as they may battle DC United (34 pts, 28 matches) in the wildcard round. However, several clubs are looking to creep into the postseason, notably Xherdan Shaqiri's Chicago Fire (32 points, 27 matches), Charlotte FC (31 points, 26 matches), and both New York clubs, who sit below the aforementioned clubs with one point between each other.

In the West, any club currently in the playoff picture could finish 8th and host the wild card match. As for qualifying for the playoffs, 9th-place FC Dallas (34 points, 26 matches) will need to battle out the remainder of the season to prevent their Texas rivals Austin FC (33 pts, 27 matches) from making the playoffs. However, Dallas and Austin face stiff competition from the Portland Timbers (33 pts, 28 matches), Sporting KC (32 pts, 28 matches), and even LA Galaxy, who trail with 29 points, but played only 25 matches, which gives them a lifeline.

The Messi Effect

While we can virtually eliminate Toronto FC (22 pts, 27 matches) and Colorado Rapids (19 pts, 26 matches) from this race, we still need to mention Inter Miami, despite trailing both New York clubs.

The arrivals of Leo Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba elevated Miami from dead last and obscurity to a Leagues Cup title, and a qualification to the US Open Cup final, defeating no other than league leaders FC Cincinnati on penalties in the semifinals.

Mentioning Messi's performances feels like a cliché, but I absolutely need to highlight the dramatic turnaround regarding the club's performances. Since his MLS debut against New York Red Bulls on August 26, Miami have gone undefeated in four games, winning three of those matches, two of which were away wins (vs NYRB and LAFC). The only non-win came against Nashville SC in a League Cup final rematch (0-0).

Despite Messi's absence, Miami defeated playoff-hopeful Sporting KC 3-2. Despite this, they face a tough schedule, with Atlanta United awaiting their return on Saturday at the iconic Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Their subsequent opponents include the Insigne-Bernardeschi duo and Toronto FC at BMO Field, Orlando at Exploria Stadium, and then a two-game home stand against a resurgent Houston Dynamo and a (nowadays) unpredictable New York City FC.

However, it is important to note that Messi and Miami defeated Atlanta once before in the Leagues Cup and can easily defeat each of these clubs with a full and healthy squad. Bookies give Miami a +650 chance of winning the MLS Cup, which puts them as second-favourites behind FC Cincinnati, despite still being six points out of a wildcard spot, which would force them to play almost every playoff match away from home.

With that being said, should Miami avoid slowing down from their momentum, the club can extend its impressive form and creep into the playoffs. The bookies may even prove to be right, since MLS Playoffs serves as a perfect competition for clubs entering this stage with strong momentum. Its schedule, which included less matches at the start of the season, can serve as a perfect opportunity for the Florida club, as their two matches in hand would theoretically bring them to 9th place, should they win both.

Predictions

Miami will ultimately fall short as a busier schedule might lead to more injuries or even suspensions, with key players Robert Taylor and DeAndre Yedlin being one yellow card away from a suspension due to yellow card accumulation. We also need to consider international duty, which is another downside of a higher density of matches during September and October, each month containing an international break.

Right now, Miami have eight players, including Messi (Argentina) and star striker Josef Martinez (Venezuela), on international duty, which makes their last win even more impressive.

However, a couple of matches resulting in dropped points would be all that it takes for Miami to no longer be in contention. Ultimately, their star arrivals will likely prove too little, too late. Watch out for Miami next season, though!

As for the remainder of the clubs, I believe Montréal and DC United will hold their respective positions, with Montréal playing most of their matches at home, where they have played incredibly well. In the West, I believe that Austin or Portland will creep into the wildcard position and topple either Dallas or even San Jose, should they suffer a classic annual slump.

In Western Canada, Vancouver will qualify comfortably and will be a team to watch in the postseason! We also cannot count out defending MLS Cup champions LAFC and 2022 CONCACAF Champions League winners Seattle Sounders, who bring a tremendous amount of experience and boast exquisite talent.

St. Louis City will be fun to watch as well, with them, Seattle and LAFC being the favourites to face the likes of Cincinnati, Nashville, Philadelphia or New England - all Eastern favourites - in the MLS Cup Final.

Columbus, Atlanta, and Houston are undoubtedly the dark horses of the competition. Each club boasts a solid squad with sufficient talent and experience to wreak havoc and cause surprises in the tightly-contested MLS Cup Playoffs.

Bottom Line

Given the current standings, passionate soccer/football fans in North America and elsewhere should use this as an opportunity to support North American soccer, since it is in our backyard.

In Canada, two of the three Canadian clubs are poised to play beyond the regular season and could be unpredictable sides in their respective conferences. This will bring perhaps highly entertaining matches.

Even if Messi and Miami would fail to qualify for the playoffs, last year's competition, especially the MLS Cup Final between Philly and LAFC, should tell you all you need to know about how entertaining the MLS Cup Playoffs can become!

For neutrals, perhaps pick and choose a random club currently in the playoff picture. I guarantee you that you will start enjoy watching MLS, despite it obviously not containing the same caliber as the Premier League. If you pick a club near you, I would not be surprised if you would elect to travel to that city and stadium to attend a match!

You may even catch a European star, or an up and coming North or South American talent who could make it far in Europe. Just look at Bournemouth's Tyler Adams or Newcastle's Miguel Almiron.

Watching such unproven players with tremendous upside - whether via an AppleTV+ subscription or a discounted ticket price - potentially having a career match is worth the investment!